Indonesia tetap optimis, akan dapat mengatasi krisis ekonomi global yang episentrumnya terdapat di negara adidaya Amerika. Ibarat tsunami dengan episentrum di Amerika, gelombangnya akan berdampak ke negara-negara lain. Beberapa perusahaan hancur dan bangkrut, sebagian merumahkan karyawannnya. Di Amerika, perusahaan-perusahaan dimulai dengan Bear Stern (Prime Morgage), Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac dibidang pembiayaan properti. Berikutnya merambah ke bidang asuransi AIG, dan Lehman Brothers, dan akhirnya ke sektor real yaitu perusahaan GM (General Motor). Kekayaan GM kini merosot hampir sama dengan kekayaan tahun 1926. Kini kekayaannya jauh dibawah Toyota, yang hanya sekitar 1/40 toyota. Kini, GM memasang iklan di internet, memohon dukungan publik agar meng-goal-kan sidang senat agar pemerintah US membantu mereka.
Indonesia juga ikut kena gelombangnya, perusahaan group Bakri Brothesrs yang beberapa bulan yang lalu dijerumuskan oleh Forbes sebagai orang terkaya di Indonesia, sekarang dihancurkan oleh Kirisis ekonomi global, sehingga saham-sahamnya (elty, bnbr, btel, enrg, dan yang paling parah Bumi) dijual kayak kacang goreng. Yang mau jual banyak, yang mau beli nggak ada. Setiap hari Jatuh sebesar 10%, tergantung batas terendah turun per hari yang ditetapkan Bapepam.
Tetapi kami, dan juga penulis tulisan dibawah ini (Terry Lacey) tetap optimis, Karena sektor real di Indonesia, tidak terkena dampak terlalu berat. Dengan akan adanya PEMILU 2009, akan banyak uang beredar di masyarakat, kenaikan gaji PNS, terutama guru dan dosen juga akan memberi dampak positip. Tetapi, karena menjelang PEMILU mulai banyak muncul isu-isu negatif, masalah kartun nabi Muhammad, mengidentikkan kata muslim = teroris, dll. Target mereka barangkali membuat chaos indonesia, dan menjatuhkan pemimpin sekarang sebelum PEMILU, sehingga pemimpin yang akan datang dapat mereka atur dan arahkan. Jadi generasi muda harus lebih hati-hati, masih banyak pihak (juga negara lain) tidak menghendaki Indonesia maju. Baca artikel berikut:
http://www.dailysta r.com.lb/ article.asp?
edition_id=1& categ_id= 2&article_ id=97616
Indonesia - why there is no recession in the world's leading Muslim
economy
By Terry Lacey
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Report by Terry Lacey
Following the election of US President-elect Barack Obama there is
likely to be a slow recovery in confidence in the United States
financial and banking system. A recession is unavoidable in the US
and EU, but with only a downturn in developing countries. This crisis
of confidence in the Western banking and financial system comes
during the dying days of the most unpopular American presidency in
living memory. Financial mismanagement and weak regulatory frameworks
have devastated the US economy, making the rich richer and the poor
poorer. Two million Americans may lose their homes. Millions in the
US and Europe will lose their jobs.
Yet the devastating legacy of the Bush presidency leaves open great
opportunities for Indonesia, the Muslim world and the developing
countries of the South.
Indonesia can play a key role in leading the Muslim world toward
economic recovery, and help minimize the impact of global recession.
First, by managing its national economy to maintain growth, demand,
imports and exports. The nominal Gross Domestic Product for 2009 is
projected at $547 billion. Indonesia is already in the top 20
economies of the world.
Indonesia is currently overtaking Belgium and Sweden. It will soon
overtake Turkey, the Netherlands and Austria as it enormous size,
resources and population come into play. It is a strong candidate to
join the top 10 economies in the world within two decades.
Second, by mobilizing investment for oil, gas, energy projects,
biofuels, infrastructure (roads, railways, ports), manufacturing and
retailing sectors. It needs over $40 billion for electricity alone,
to finance an additional 40,000 MWe of power by 2025. Indonesia will
become a nuclear power, and plans four power stations. Total foreign
investment needed overall during the next 15 years exceeds $100
billion.
Investment is still coming from the US and EU (including Eastern
Europe) but increasingly from the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and
China), and also from Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries
like Canada, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and from Association of Southeast
Asian Nations member states (including Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand). Investment is also coming in greater volume
from the Gulf Arab states, Israel and South Africa.
Third, Indonesia can help lead Muslim economies by using its economic
size and prestige as a member of the United Nations Security Council
to join Brazil, Russia, India, China and Southern countries to bring
about changes in policies and in the balance of power in world
organizations dealing with trade, finance and development, especially
the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade
Organization (WTO).
Indonesia has major reservations about the IMF following its own
experience in 1998. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said
that the world should not slip into creating a shadow world economic
government run by an inner IMF council. Indonesia is also tired of
being kept on the fringes in the WTO.
Asia and Southern countries want a new deal. Muslim countries
collectively represent an increasingly important source of capital,
while Western liquidity has partly dried up. Muslim economies
represent important investment sources as well as investment
destinations. The collective size of Muslim economies represents
significant demand for Western goods and services, relatively
unaffected by the recession in the West.
Indonesia can still deploy export credits, sovereign funds, Islamic
finance and other non-traditional financial sources, such as
environmental funds and carbon credits. Despite the global downturn
Indonesia is still pulling in some bank finance.
A $140 million syndicated loan for Excelcomindo for
telecommunications expansion was announced recently. Low-cost
airline Lion Air is buying 12 Boeing 737 planes even though the
required local cash contribution for the last four has risen to 30
percent. Lion Air will use its own cash to carry on expanding. St.
Miguel Corp. of the Philippines is competing with a US-led consortium
to clinch a $1.3 billion coal supply deal, to buy PT Bumi Resources
from Bakri Brothers. There is money here and money coming in.
Standard and Poors is holding Indonesian credit ratings stable and
its credit rating may even be raised. Singapore could slip into
recession but Indonesia will not, and the reason is mostly sheer size
plus improved financial and economic management.
Indonesia is in a key position as the largest Muslim country in the
world with a population of 230 million and a land area of 1.9 million
square kilometers.
The Indonesian Gross Domestic Product was $843.7 billion in terms of
purchasing power and $432.9 billion in terms of official exchange
rates in 2007. It has fixed foreign investment of $57.6 billion and
holds $9 billion of investment in other countries. It has more than
3,500 millionaires holding over $100 million each, of whom 70 percent
live in Jakarta.
Its current economic growth is 6.5 percent and may fall below 6
percent in 2009 due to reduced exports. Government will stimulate
growth using the national budget which already reached $100 billion
in 2008. Government is confident it can hold growth at 6 percent. The
World Bank has set aside a $2 billion standby loan for 2009 only to
be triggered if growth falls below 5.8 percent.
In 2007 Indonesian exports were $118 billion and imports $86 billion,
a trade surplus of $32 billion, and foreign exchange reserves as of
this month were $50 billion.
Indonesia has already lost some jobs in sectors like textiles. Some
exports to the US and Europe fell in the fourth quarter. The stock
market, government bonds and the national currency also fell in value
during the global financial crash in the first week of October.
The government launched a securities buy-back program spearheaded by
state-owned enterprises and defended the rupiah currency by
intervening in the currency market via the Bank of Indonesia. The
government also took steps to increase liquidity and focused on
getting inflation under control and on maintaining growth.
The government has increased guarantees on personal deposits to 2
billion rupiahs ($190,000), which covers 100 percent of deposits for
over 99.7 percent of 81 million bank accounts.
Indonesian banks are strong, with adequate reserves, low non-
performing loans and almost no exposure to subprime losses. Only a
small group of investors lost money on Lehman-related instruments
purchased via international banks.
The Indonesian inflation rate is declining from a high of 12 percent
to maybe 9 percent by January with reductions planned to between 9
percent and 7 percent for the rest of 2009. The bank rate is being
stabilized at 9.5 percent after six months of consecutive rises. It
will be held for a while and then reduced to 7.5 percent in 2009.
Indonesian bonds are recovering from their recent nose-dive and the
stock market is stabilizing. Local economists say the stock market
was over-valued and more normal values and returns will be restored
as part of the local share trading cycle.
The government is now focusing on trying to mobilize its massive $115
billion dollar national budget for 2009, up from $100 billion in
2008, to push projects and overall spending forward and help
substitute local demand for declines in exports, with every hope of
keeping economic growth for 2009 at between 5.5 and 6.0 percent.
Despite the collapse of the Bank of Indonesia subsidiary Indover Bank
in the Netherlands, there is no sovereign default. Indonesian Finance
Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and the new central bank governor,
Boediono, have taken a stand against previous mismanagement.
In contrast to the kid-glove treatment of failed bankers and
financial managers in the West, who took imprudent and possibly
illegal risks, the Indonesian government is directing the work of its
Corruption Eradication Commission and Corruption Court against
corrupt central bankers and parliamentarians who took bribes.
The Indonesian government also says it will pursue legally those who
misused its name and dragged it into the Indover collapse, by
implying there were sovereign guarantees backing Indover borrowing
when there were none. It also intends to pursue allegations of short
trading and fraudulent practices in the stock exchange.
Indonesia lost 10 years as a result of the 1998 banking crash when it
put its fate in the hands of the IMF, which initially failed to
understand local strengths and exaggerated local weaknesses. An
historical photo shows President Suharto sitting at his desk, signing
his own political death-warrant while the IMF representative stood
over him, as he signed the IMF agreement.
A lot has changed between the Asian banking crash of 1998 and the
Wall Street crash of 2008. The economic balance of power in the world
has changed and the balance of global power has shifted to the South
and East. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown recognized this when he
urged the Gulf states and the G20 to help stabilize the world
economy.
In the 1998 bank crash Indonesia had no freedom and no choice. This
time in 2008 Indonesia has freedom and is stronger, and can chose to
tread its own path. Hopefully its greater strength and determination
will inspire Muslim and Southern countries not to panic in the face
of recession in the West, but to work together to avoid the spread of
recession to the South and to build and strengthen a new world
economic order.
Terry Lacey is a development economist who writes from Jakarta,
Indonesia, on modernization in the Muslim world, investment and trade
relations with the European Union and Islamic banking. This article
is published with permission from the author.
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